Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Bubble, or no Bubble?

There are a lot of people calling this market a bubble. I for one don't think it is. Let me tell you why. EARNINGS. in the tech bubble of the 90s we had stocks that had never turned a dime of profit trading at 60 70 or even 100 dollars per share. that is not a good thing for long term holdings. In today's markets we have a lot of things going for us that we didn't back then. In the end I am going to keep it simple. looking for companies who have a one year earnings growth rate that exceeds the P/E Ratio. I.e. if a stock has a P/E of 100 and a earnings growth rate of 100% in the last year I am OK. If corporate earnings are less or nonexistent, I am hot water when the market turns. Remember earnings drive prices and when we don't see earnings it is something else driving that demand. If we enter a bear market the company with no earnings will crater as smart money moves to value. so watch for good earnings on your bullish trades and stick to proper position sizing.