Tuesday, August 28, 2007

DOW Below 12500 before Oct 1st 2008

I never call my shots but if I did I would say that the DOW is just starting its next big push to the down side. I drew a nice little channel that uses the last 3 tops we have had for its upper extreme. I see us creating that 3rd high today. I can't help it but I am bearish for the short term. even though I always say that day to day movement is nothing but noise. I can hear a growl behind the din and it's coming from the bears. If you don't see it that way I want to know why. what is it that makes you so intent on being wrong? Talk to me America!

Saturday, August 18, 2007

This is how a military pilot says "Extreem peril is imminent"

If this Air Force Jockey were a Central Bank Chairman it would look similar but the radio transmission would read back something like this...
The Federal Reserve Board on Friday approved actions by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks...decreasing the discount rate at the Banks from 6-1/4 percent to 5-3/4 percent, effective immediately.
In reality the message is the same from both the Pilot and the Banker... What is that message you may ask? I think you get the point but it’s probably something like the following… "Hey everyone; don't look now but we are about to take it up the tail pipe! Repeatedly!"

Needless to say but I am still Bearish on the broad market. Sure next week might turn out more bull than I think, but thats a big part of being a good trader (being wrong, sometimes the majority of the time) Eventually we get on the right side of the market and have the nerve to stick it out. until then we shut down the loosing trades as fast as is realistic.

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Game over man game over!



After today's fed decision to leave rates alone for six more weeks it was any ones guess as to what Uncle Ben and the boys really think. I know that the last thing you need is one more egg head telling you what to think... But here I go anyway. The Fed is lost. They don't know what to do. everyone wants to ignore the fact that there is no way in hell the US government can meet its current debt obligations and we can't go on printing money forever. The credit crunch that started with NEW and a bunch of its loan shark competition capitulating is just getting into full swing. Ben can't admit it because he doesn't want to fuel the fire. He knows where the bodies are buried but won't own up to the harsh reality of the American self destruction cycle and the role that all his big time banking ass pals had in our walk down the primrose path. I am ready to short this market right now! In fact I reentered my new favorite ETF today DXD. Could I be wrong? Yes. If there is one thing I have learned about the market is that it can not be reasoned with. So like always my stops are in place and I am still looking for the next bull market.

If you don't know what the picture has to do with this post; you need a smartbomb of a different kind. But for the one person who reads this blog... click on the post heading and the sound byte will jar what’s left of your barely sentient consciousness into recall.