The Dow. Hmmmm.
I will admit that it feels good to be on the right side of this market. Its been a rough year so far. I have been short the Dow for several days now. (DXD) I just cant stop trading those ETFs. Trust me, I'm not getting a big head here. I am still down on the year as a whole because I got into some garbage Iron Condor trading a while back. Keep you eyes open traders. The Dow Jones 30 ETF "DIA" closed at a 3 year low yesterday. we may see some temporary support at these levels, but don't count on it.
Also- I noticed after some research that Gold had its biggest single day upside move in history. Many are calling gold the only safe haven; but it may not be so simple. Right now I am feeling like there is no safe haven. The Banking system as we knew it is a fast fading memory... Not that I am complaining. I have never liked banks. (sorry bankers. Its not personal)
I had a quick conversation with an old trader buddy of mine 2 days ago. we were talking about bearish search tools when he cut me off and said "why search, just buy puts on anything and you will make money" of course he was making a bigger point, but his wise crack was not that far from the truth.
My conscience keeps telling me that "Wheat in the granary, taters in the cellar and peaches in mason jars are about the only real safe haven that makes sense. So while the market plunged today I went and cut fire-wood to be stored for possible dark times that may (almost certainly) materialize in the coming months. No living trees were harmed in the process. Just dead and down trunks and limbs. That's actually a good way to look at the market right now. "Dead and Down" We have to make room for new seeds to sprout and take root.
Good luck to all, and just stick to the plan.
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2 comments:
Bro, I am with you 100% on your observations - from gold to banks, to tater and trees. I think this depression will be worse than the last one for one very big reason. That is, the populace do not have the personal vocational skills that gird up the nation; the skills that are implicit in obtaining, planting, watering, weeding, harvesting, preserving, pruning, felling, splitting,- hell dude, I doubt that one in ten people could start a fire on a sunny windless day!
Thanks for your reply. I know that we are not the only ones who are looking at things this way. I was shocked (but not too surprised) when I saw the VIX hit 42 today. I got a good laugh as well when I heard some Harvard educated egg head start talking about the situation we are in now as though its already over. "well the markets are showing signs of strength...don't panic and sell, just ride out the dips and so on." the truth is this; WE AINT SEEN NOTHING YET!!! Greenspan himself admits that at HALF of us banks will fail. The world is flooded with dollars that nobody wants to hang on to any more. When gold moves 8% in one day you know that U.S. Government Debt Securities have lost their appeal as a safe haven. The U.S government is BANKRUPT! so now we do what all bankrupt people do... devalue everything we have including the labor force. 12 months from now we will have seen things transpire that make this last several months look like a cake walk. "will work for food" will take on a whole new meaning.
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